Are you looking to get an edge in sports betting? Trying to go from being a casual bettor to a profitable sharp? Then you need to read "The Logic of Sports Betting" by Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow. "The Logic of Sports Betting" answers all these questions about how sportsbooks operate and what it takes to consistently beat them.
As someone who has made a career out of outwitting sportsbooks, Ed Miller is the perfect guide to reveal the inner workings of the sports betting industry. He combines insider knowledge from his 30+ years as a professional bettor with an accessible and entertaining style of writing.
Meanwhile, Matthew Davidow provides the analytical rigor to back up their strategy for finding +EV wagers. By reading this book, you'll come away armed with the framework for making optimal betting decisions.
Here's a chapter-by-chapter overview of the goldmine of sports betting wisdom they have dropped on us:
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To bet on sports and become a winning bettor, you need to understand what governs the betting lines and odds set by sports books. Miller, author of the Logic of Sports Betting book gives us an insider's view into the algorithms, data sources, psychology, and incentives behind the sportsbook business.
Key questions he answers include:
- How do bookmakers synthesize information to produce betting lines?
- When do they use shade lines to influence bet distribution?
- How quickly and by how much do they adjust odds in response to sharp public money?
These factors determine how efficient the market is and where profitable opportunities exist.
This chapter explains the distinction between line-makers (sportsbooks) and line-takers (bettors). As a bettor, you can choose to only bet on games where you have an informed opinion that differs from what's reflected in the market odds.
Or you can bet on every game, regardless of whether you agree with the line or not. Miller outlines which approach is optimal for certain bet types and sports. This influences what bets you should focus on.
It's impossible to win at sports betting without accounting for the cut the sportsbook takes on each wager. Miller illustrates exactly how vigor will erode your profits if you don't adjust your bet size and strategy accordingly.
He covers critical topics like:
- Effective vigorish rates by sport and bet type
- Calculating your required winning percentage to overcome juice
- Adjusting your risk-reward ratio based on vigorish
CLV represents how efficient the sports betting market is. It measures how often you're betting on the 'right' side that the market eventually shifts towards by game time. Miller explains why tracking CLV is vital:
"No factor correlates better with betting success than the ability to bet into lines that move in your favor by game time."
He reveals what CLV benchmark you need to surpass for different sports and bet types to ensure long-term profitability.
This chapter also covers advanced strategies like middling.
Here, Miller and Davidow lay out their framework for finding +EV wagers—the key to beating the sportsbooks. They share two models every winning bettor should have in their toolkit:
1. Market Maker Model: Identify betting opportunities the sportsbooks may have overlooked or mispriced in their lines.
2. Valuation Model: Estimate the divergence between the market price and your own projected price.
They walk through examples of applying these models across the NBA, NFL, and other sports to isolate profitable situations.
No sports betting strategy can survive without proper bankroll management. Miller provides best practices for optimizing your bet size for maximum returns while minimizing the risk of ruin.
He covers essential topics, such as:
- Appropriate bankroll size by sport based on variance
- The Kelly criterion for bet sizing
- Using leverage to boost returns
- Withdrawing profits regularly
The value of this book is clear based on rave reviews from bettors who profoundly transformed their sports betting performance by applying Miller and Davidow's teachings:
"This is probably Ed Miller's best book. He gives you a dash of humor and a whole lot of real talk. 10/10 would recommend!"
~ Rufus P.
"As a former Las Vegas bookmaker, I can confirm the authors have clearly outlined the winning formula for profiting from sports betting in this book."
~ Robert W.
"I'm not a sportsbettor by trade, but I found myself unable to put down "The Logic of Sports Betting" once I started reading. It's that good."
~ Clara D.
"The Logic of Sports Betting" delivers on its promise to teach sports bettors the framework to beat the house. Miller and Davidow combine engaging storytelling with analytical precision in outlining what it takes to thrive.
This book is mandatory reading for anyone looking to crush sportsbooks. You'll gain low-level knowledge of how betting lines and odds are set while learning how to exploit inefficiencies for profit.
Whether betting as a hobby or aspiring to do it professionally, applying the lessons from this book will clearly differentiate winning players from the mass of casual bettors. Miller is a best-selling author too.
So follow Ed Miller and Matthew Davidow's sports betting logic to get an edge on the sportsbooks starting today!
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