From Gino at BetOpenly
Chances are you have at least heard these terms, if not at least understand them on a surface level basis. Looking individually at “line movement”, “reverse line movement, or “where the sharp money is” is not good enough by itself, and chances are you probably have a false understanding of how to utilize all of these tools. Knowing how limits work along with the timing of everything, and mixing how the numbers move is a true art form and really one of the best ways to find value if you do not have the time or resources to do your own models and projections. So I am going to explain how you can exploit all the information out there, and put it all together to find the “right” sides of games.
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A bet signal is simply when sharp action causes the markets to correct themselves, aka line movement. This is one of the biggest factors I look at when evaluating a game. It is literally as simple as if I see a number of bet signals on a certain play it is automatically one that gets circled and further evaluated, if see bet signals on two different sides, it means there is not a general consensus on one particular side and I will usually cross it off. The most important part is that there are multiple signals at multiple different books, because if it is only at betmgm let’s say, they may have a different risk tolerance for that specific game, but if multiple books are triggering this signal, again it is a general consensus they are all thinking the same thing about a certain side. Having the sharps and books united on one play is always a very good sign, and this is the best way to figure that out.
It is not enough to just see a bet signal and go and bet it, I will give you an example.
If I see a side with 6 bet signals at +7 but the books currently have it at +6.5, I will typically wait for two different things to happen. First, either another signal at +6.5 because I will certainly take a line at +6 that sharps like +6.5 because of key numbers. Or wait for public money, who just saw a line go from -7 to -6.5 and think they are getting a good deal, to steam the number back up to 7, where I will then side with the sharps at +7. There is a phenomenon that happens very frequently where shaprs move a number half a point, then the public bets it back up a half point, and then more shaprs pounce back on the number, and so on and so on. If you can spot a situation like that, it is very telling which side you should be on. Hopefully all that made sense.
Going back to what I was just talking about, two different books moving the same line is not always equal. You probably did not know that but there books that are called market setting books. What does this mean? Well pretty much as it reads, sharper books are the first ones to come out with lines and others will follow suit and essentially copy them. If you have ever used an off-shore book you will probably notice that college totals usually do not come out until 2-3 days before a game because they want to see what is happening at these sharper books and again pretty much just copy them. FYI, these market setting books also have the higher limits.
When I talk about limits and I am not referring to that tout you see boasting on the twitter timeline that a book is limiting him because he has just won so much money. Again, you probably did not know this, but right when a book releases the next weekends lines there is something called early limits. So usually sunday night, the next college football slate will be released, but you cannot go in there and grab those early numbers for $50k, it differs from book to book but it will usually be a $2,500 limit until later in the week. The reason for this is because sharps would eat the books alive getting those early numbers. So the books impose these early limits, see what the small money crowd does, adjust accordingly, and then they will have the number they are comfortable with and then increase the limits for the big boys.
Timing. It is much better when these bet signals get triggered later rather than earlier, because as I just mentioned the big guys are not going to come in when the early limits are still in place, but again later when the limits get raised, that is the true sharp money.
Like my article about wong teasers most of you probably know what this is, but it is not something you can just bet blindly, context is needed.
So RLM is basically a dead giveaway when it comes to sharp action. RLM is when the % of bets (not handle %) is on one side, but the line moves in the opposite direction. Ex: 85% of the tickets bet are on Colorado at -21 vs Stanford, but the line moves to 20.5.
Again, there are other factors you need to consider as opposed to betting that blindly. It is imperative to look at the full line movement history as opposed to just the opening and current number. This is because a line may open up that offers no value to the sharps, but it could move so much due to public betting that they find value in the new line. Ex. Colorado opens up -21 vs Stanford, the sharps might agree with that line and lay off initially. However, the public may bet this up to 24.5 and the sharps will pounce moving it back to -23. This is still RLM but you would not be able to tell if you only looked at the opening vs current number because all you would see is movement in the favor of CO. The reason for this is because your average bettor bets on his eyes, guts, and bias. They look at factors like recent performance, home teams, and not factors like value. This means being a contrarian means I am on the side of the house which always gives me confidence. This is another concept most of you probably understand but another thing I look at is % of handle vs % of bets. I look for a team that is getting less than 50% of actual betting tickets, but significantly more money %. This means your average low limit bettors are on one side, but the real money is on the other side, again this is where you want to be.
Once I have gone through the betting signals, percentages, and ticket count, this is another factor I look for. This is when a team is getting a massive amount tickets, but the line stays the same. Ex: the number of tickets on the Bills is 80% but the line is standing still at -5. If you do not take away anything from this article take this away. Sportsbooks make money two main ways. First, getting 50% of money on each side and collecting the juice. Second, is laying traps for the public and taking their money. That second part is where the line freeze comes in. If a book sees one side getting hammered by the public but the leave the line as is, it is because they are okay exposing themselves to all that money because they are confident in a specific outcome. Plus, they do not want to give any value to the sharps. So in that example if the line moves to bills -6, sharps would definitely hammer the +6 on the other side, because the books and the sharps are both aware that side is the better one. So recognizing this is a good way to get into bed with the books and sharps.
Watching line movements indicates where "sharp" money from professional bettors is flowing and pushing odds. For example, if the line on a football game drops from -7.5 to -6.5, it shows pros are taking the underdog.
When books limit betting amounts right after opening lines, it shows they don't want additional action on a team. This suggests their initial lines were inefficient and they need to manage balances.
"Market-setting" sportsbooks like Pinnacle that cater to sharps often move lines first. If they adjust lines, it's wise to follow their lead before other books react.
Bookmakers aim to balance action on both sides. If lopsided bets appear, they'll adjust lines to encourage more balanced bets. Monitoring these moves is telling.
By interpreting advanced signals like these, savvy bettors can gain an informational edge on both the public and the sportsbooks setting the market odds. They reveal inefficiencies to capitalize on.
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